Insecurity is going to persist in Cabo Delgado Province as Islamic State (IS) supported militants continue to carry out attacks and fight government forces. Despite a heavy military presence in Cabo Delgado, mostly of Mozambican and Rwandan forces, reports of violence toward civilians continue to be reported as militants focus efforts and adjust their strategy to carry out attacks with a smaller footprint.
Insecurity has continued to spread into Niassa Province, where militants have begun to operate in order to bypass the significant security force presence in Cabo Delgado. Mecula and Muembe districts have been particularly vulnerable to attacks. Numerous violent attacks have also been reported, targeting the Niassa National Reserve December 2nd, a police contingent November 27th, and civilians November 29th. Other targeted attacks on these groups have been reported on multiple occasions. Reports of kidnapping, theft and disruption to daily activities have also been logged. The precise location of these incidents remains unconfirmed. The insurgents’ activities have also prompted displacements of communities as of mid January, over 3,000 people are reportedly displaced. On December 16th, the US Embassy announced the prohibition of its personnel from traveling to Mecula and Marrupa districts in Niassa Province until further notice.Militant attacks will almost certainly persist in the coming weeks absent any military intervention. Security forces will likely establish security checkpoints, which could prompt localized business and transport disruptions.
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